Analyst Warns Bitcoin Rally Fleeting, Needs More Than Trade Truce for $110K Breakout

James Toledano says bitcoin’s breakout to $110,000 is within reach, but he warns that the crypto asset’s rebound is currently driven more by sentiment than by strong fundamentals.

Bitcoin Rebound Hollow

U.S. President Donald Trump’s retreat from his aggressive tariff rhetoric, coupled with the thaw in U.S.-China trade relations, places bitcoin’s $110,000 breakout within reach, asserts James Toledano, COO at Unity Wallet. Nevertheless, Toledano warns that these developments only provide “a temporary boost to risk assets, including crypto.”

Toledano argues that bitcoin’s recent rebound, which has seen the top crypto asset surpass the $100,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 4, is hollow because “it is based on sentiment and the political moves of a single man.” Toledano says he prefers fundamentals to drive the market.

The COO also believes that despite strong demand, as evidenced by bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, the potential for gains remains constrained by macroeconomic uncertainties. He argues that, absent consistent institutional buying pressure and more definitive regulatory guidance, bitcoin will likely consolidate before attempting to set another new all-time high.

After shaking global markets, including the key bond market, with the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, the Trump administration eventually backpedaled. This allowed key stock market indices to erase a large portion of losses incurred in the days following Liberation Day. Tariffs against China were, however, hiked to an effective 145%, prompting Beijing to retaliate with its own punitive taxes on U.S. imports.

Growing concerns and warnings that the U.S.-China trade war would leave both countries worse off eventually forced the two nations to hold direct talks. As reported by Bitcoin.com News, the two countries ultimately agreed to slash tariffs by 115%, leaving the U.S. duty on Chinese imports at 30%.

While the agreement reportedly returned both countries to positions they held before the trade war escalated, it was seemingly well received by investors, including crypto traders. Commenting on the impact of the U.S.-China tariff war on crypto, Toledano states:

The U.S.-China tariff changes have certainly had an impact on markets, and it is true that select digital assets have increasingly been seen as macro hedges. Their sensitivity to global instability remains significant. Recent patterns show crypto no longer operates in a vacuum; it reacts in tandem with traditional financial markets, especially during acute stress.

Toledano argues that, unlike equities, which are tethered to traditional economic cycles and government policies, cryptocurrency often demonstrates a more rapid rebound and attracts capital during prolonged crises. He attributes this to crypto’s decentralized nature and the fact that it is beyond the control of central banks, making it an alternative store of value and medium of exchange during times of instability.

Thus, while further geopolitical or economic unrest will likely trigger short-term volatility across all asset classes, Toledano believes that crypto’s fundamental structural independence potentially enables it to outpace traditional assets.