BTC has once again broken through $100,000, rising over 22%: Has the bull returned? Is it a craze or a bubble?

On the evening of May 8, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the 104,000 USD threshold, with a 24-hour rise of 6.29%; Ethereum (ETH) even surged 22.15%, returning above 2,200 USD and setting a recent new high. Market sentiment quickly turned to greed, with the Fear and Greed Index soaring to 65, and social media buzzed with calls for "BTC to hit 150,000" and "ETH to return to 3,000." However, this big pump is not without its signs; behind it are both direct stimuli from Trump's policy signals and profound changes in the market's microstructure.

Trump's "call order" effect: tariff agreement and optimistic expectations of policies

In the early hours of May 8, U.S. President Trump announced on his self-created social platform Truth Social and the X platform multiple updates, stating that a tariff agreement had been reached with a certain major country, and claimed that this move would "reshape the global trade landscape and benefit U.S. assets." At 22:00 Beijing time, Trump further stated: "Now is an excellent time to buy stocks and crypto assets, America is entering a golden era!" This statement quickly ignited market sentiment, with BTC rising nearly 3% within an hour of the announcement, while ETH surged more than 10% in the following hours.

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Trump's tariff policy adjustments are the core catalyst for this big pump. Since the beginning of 2025, the high tariff policies promoted by the Trump administration have triggered concerns about inflation and economic slowdown in the market. Crypto assets plummeted at the end of February due to the "tariff stick", with Bitcoin falling below $80,000 at its lowest. However, the tariff agreement with the UK on May 8 was interpreted by the market as a signal of "moderation", easing investors' fears of escalating global trade frictions. X platform user @NFTbigbanana pointed out that the tariff agreement not only reduced macroeconomic uncertainty but also indirectly facilitated a "handshake reconciliation" between Trump and the Federal Reserve. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates ahead of schedule in 2026, and the expectation of liquidity easing further pushed up the prices of risk assets.

In addition, Trump's crypto-friendly stance continues to gain traction. On May 7, he nominated pro-crypto Paul Atkins for SEC chairman and stated that he would push for the "Stablecoin Regulatory Bill" to pass in the congressional vote on the evening of May 8. These policy signals have strengthened the market's confidence in the vision of the U.S. as a "crypto capital," with institutional funds accelerating their inflow into BTC and ETH spot ETFs. According to PANews, on May 7, the net inflow into BTC spot ETFs was $142.3 million, while there was a slight outflow from ETH spot ETFs. However, on the evening of the 8th, the long leverage positions in ETH surged, indicating that whales and large investors were buying on dips.

Gold prices are under pressure, and the BTC "digital gold" narrative is resurfacing.

Meanwhile, gold prices saw a significant decline on May 8. Spot gold fell below $3,300/ounce, down about 2% from the historical high of $3,370 on April 21. Market analysts believe that the tariff agreement has eased geopolitical risks, weakening gold's safe-haven demand, while the short-term strength of the dollar index has further pressured gold prices. In stark contrast to the weakness of gold, the safe-haven attributes of BTC have been amplified again. X user @AlvaApp commented: "Trump's tariff policy has solidified BTC's label as 'digital gold', with safe-haven demand shifting from gold to crypto assets."

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Xingye Research previously pointed out that Bitcoin often accompanies the substitution effect of safe-haven assets before and after the regional reward halving cycle. The year 2025 marks the rising window after the BTC halving, coupled with the impact of Trump's policies on traditional safe-haven assets, the narrative of BTC as "digital gold" has gained widespread recognition in the market. Data shows that on May 8, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain surged to 850,000, setting a new high for the year, indicating that both retail and institutional investors are accelerating their entry.

The rebound logic of Ethereum: Technical upgrades and resonance with market sentiment

Compared to the steady rise of BTC, the 22.15% big pump of ETH is even more striking, driven by both the logic of catching up and fundamental support. On the morning of May 8, the Ethereum Pectra upgrade was successfully launched, optimizing Layer 2 scalability and user experience, while reducing Gas fees. This technological advancement has boosted market confidence in the long-term development of the ETH ecosystem, especially in the application prospects of DeFi and NFTs.

In addition, the big pump of ETH is closely related to the microstructure of the market. Coinglass data shows that on the evening of May 8, long leveraged positions of ETH surged, with the total liquidation amount across the network reaching 650 million USD within 24 hours, of which short positions accounted for nearly 90%. User @cymm66 revealed that a certain whale swept up 7,000 ETH before the big pump, accurately bottoming out and triggering a chain reaction. Compared to the institution-driven rise of BTC, the increase of ETH is more driven by retail FOMO sentiment and leveraged trading, posing a risk of overheating in the short term.

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Risk warning: Short-term overheating and macro uncertainty

Despite the strong upward momentum of BTC and ETH, the market is not without its concerns. First, ETH's 22% one-day gain has triggered a technical overbought signal, with the RSI index approaching 75 and the risk of a short-term correction rising. Second, the Fed's May 8 FOMC meeting did not specify a timetable for interest rate cuts, and although Trump's "shouting orders" boosted sentiment, it was difficult to hide the reality of inflationary pressures and a high interest rate environment. Goldman Sachs predicts that US inflation may rise above 3.8% by the end of 2025, or force the Fed to maintain its tightening policy, posing a challenge to the crypto market.

In addition, there is uncertainty regarding the implementation of Trump's policies. The specific details of the tariff agreement have not been disclosed, and if subsequent negotiations are obstructed, it may reignite market risk aversion. On-chain data for BTC and ETH also show that some early investors are reducing their holdings at high levels, and caution is needed regarding the selling pressure brought by "profit-taking."

This article only represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the position and views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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