Economist Nouriel Roubini evaluated the US economy, Interest rate cuts, and tariffs! What to expect?

Economist Nouriel Roubini made striking statements about the future of the US economy.

Roubini, a senior consultant at Hudson Bay Capital, stated that advancements in technology will balance the effects of trade tariffs. He mentioned that the U.S. is in a leading position in future fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and green technology, saying, "Technology outweighs tariffs."

According to Roubini, this technological superiority could increase the potential growth rate of the US from 2% to 4% by the year 2030. In contrast, the economist noted that the effects of tariffs and immigration restrictions could only reduce growth by 0.5%. He stated that the technological advancement would more than compensate for this loss.

Roubini, who believes that the high tariffs planned to be implemented by Donald Trump will also be limited by the market, said, "Bond investors will force Trump to back down. The strongest players are the discipline enforcers in the market."

In the short term, Roubini predicts a slowdown in the economy. He stated that the cost increases due to customs duties could increase inflation to 4%, which could restrict consumer spending and lead to a loss of confidence in both the consumer and business world. In this context, he stated that there could be a "short and shallow" recession in the last quarter of 2025.

Responding to the question of how the FED will act in this situation, Roubini stated that the central bank would want to see clear signals of a recession before making any interest rate cuts. "Inflation expectations are still under control. The Fed will act patiently and wait for the data," Roubini added that he believes lessons have been learned from the mistakes made in previous periods.

Roubini also stated that the weakening of the dollar could increase import prices, thereby putting additional pressure on inflation, and that the FED should not resort to sudden interest rate cuts. He also added that long-term bond yields could diverge from FED policy due to reasons such as the increasing budget deficit.

Despite short-term challenges in the economy, Roubini stated that the U.S. has strong long-term growth potential thanks to its innovative structure, saying, "Tariffs are temporary, but technology is a lasting advantage."