Hedera (HBAR) decouples from Bitcoin: What is the next development?

Hedera ( HBAR ) has fallen sharply by 10.5% over the past week, as technical indicators and derivative data continuously signal an increasingly clear weakness. The trading volume of futures contracts has decreased below the threshold of 100 million USD over five consecutive sessions, indicating a significant cooling of speculative interest compared to the record high of 1.3 billion USD recorded in March.

Although it used to trend in sync with Bitcoin, HBAR has shown clear weakness in the recent price surge of the world's largest cryptocurrency, only rising slightly by 0.75% in the past 30 days. With the exponential moving averages (EMA) still maintaining a downtrend and the price continuously testing the important support area around the $0.18 mark, HBAR is at a crucial crossroads, deciding its next direction in the upcoming June.

The trading volume of HBAR futures falls below 100 million USD – What does this mean?

The trading volume of HBAR futures contracts is showing a clear sign of decline, currently at 96.5 million USD, maintaining below the 100 million USD mark for five consecutive sessions. This is a notable step back, especially when compared to the peak established earlier this year.

On March 1st, the HBAR futures contract recorded a record with a trading volume exceeding 1.3 billion USD, but since then, both the volume and open contracts (OI) have been steadily declining.

These futures contracts allow investors to bet on the future price fluctuations of the HBAR token, while clearly reflecting the market sentiment and the risk tolerance of both individual and institutional investors.

The recent decline reflects an increasingly evident indifference from speculative capital, raising concerns about a cautious mindset or a lack of confidence in the short-term price outlook of Hedera.

The 7-day EMA of the trading volume for HBAR futures contracts is currently recording the lowest level in the past three months, indicating that price fluctuations are now trending to be dominated by real buying power in the spot market, rather than leveraged positions from derivative investors.

The shift in this market structure may bring about lower volatility while laying the foundation for a more sustainable price trend in the short term. However, if derivative activity shows no signs of recovery, any bullish movements may lack the momentum typically driven by strong speculative capital inflows.

Hedera lags behind the rise of BTC – Will June create a breakthrough?

Historically, the price of HBAR has often maintained a strong positive correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), even tending to amplify the overall market volatility. However, in the past 30 days, this "pair" has shown signs of fracture: BTC has grown by 14.3%, while HBAR has only modestly increased by 0.75%.

This clear divergence shows that HBAR has not yet caught up with the positive upward momentum spreading across the cryptocurrency market – which is noteworthy as HBAR has historically been a high beta asset, very sensitive to overall fluctuations.

In previous cycles, whenever the market entered a bullish phase, HBAR often outperformed BTC in terms of growth rate, but at the same time also experienced sharper declines when the market corrected. This reflects HBAR's high sensitivity to investor sentiment and capital flow in the market.

If Bitcoin continues to break new highs in June, the opportunity for HBAR to make a strong comeback is entirely possible, reminiscent of the impressive growth cycles previously recorded.

HBAR approaches the support level of $0.18 as the EMA structure remains negative

The structure of the exponential moving average (EMA) of HBAR still maintains a clear negative tone, as the short-term EMAs continue to remain well below the long-term ones – a typical signal indicating that the downtrend shows no signs of stopping.

During six consecutive trading sessions, this token has faced strong selling pressure while maintaining a price below the $0.20 threshold, clearly reflecting the absence of breakthrough buying power and increasing sell-off pressure.

This arrangement further reinforces the cautious mentality of investors towards HBAR, especially as the price is closely adhering to important technical support and resistance levels.

Currently, HBAR is approaching the key support threshold at $0.18, and if it loses this level, it will be the first time since May 8 that the price of HBAR breaks through that important support area.

However, if in June, the market awakens with positive growth momentum and a clear improvement in momentum, HBAR has the potential to bounce back above the $0.20 mark, opening up the opportunity to move towards the $0.25 range – a level not reached since the beginning of March.

SN_Nour