Is the scenario of "economic stagflation" that Trump fears most becoming a reality? High inflation, GDP downgrade, slowing employment...

US President Donald Trump's import tariffs officially took effect, while the United States is facing a "mild stagnation inflation" warning zone in which inflation is heating up again and growth has slowed significantly. (Synopsis: Trump will allow 401(k) pension to invest in Bitcoin!) Vice President Vance: Soon there will be 100 million people in the United States who own BTC) (Background supplement: Trump semiconductor tax is 100%, what can be made in the cryptocurrency circle? From 12 noon Taiwan time yesterday (7), Trump's import tariffs officially took effect, including the 20% "temporary reciprocal tariff" imposed by the United States on Taiwan, officially opening a new pattern of global trade competition. But at the same time, the U.S. economy seems to be on a narrow and bumpy path: inflation sticks, growth slows, the job market slows, and it seems closer to what economics calls "mild stagnant inflation." Investors, businesses, and policy units are looking for answers: Where does the U.S. economy go next? The true contours of slowing growth The latest models from several institutions draw almost the same curve: real GDP growth is around 1.0% per annum in 2025, well below the 2.8% in 2024. At the same time, inflation is expected to rise above 3%, while the unemployment rate may hover between 4% and 4.5%, enough to cool the labor market but not enough to release strong downward pressure on wages. This combination puts policymakers in a dilemma: tightening money could stifle growth that still has weak momentum, and easing money could push prices even higher. The Tariff Effect: Igniting the Sparks of Price Pressure The main factor pushing the economy to the edge is the Trump administration's bold tariff plan. The jump in costs is first reflected on the consumer side. The analysis shows that after companies pass on import costs to consumers, the consumer price index can be pulled up by 1.8 percentage points. On the other hand, costs squeeze profits, and corporate investment and employment willingness cool down simultaneously. RBC Capital Markets estimates that employment could fall by 500,000 by the end of 2025, a 0.5 percentage point annual drag on GDP. Although the manufacturing sector is temporarily supported by protective barriers, agriculture, construction and retail still face the double blow of shrinking demand. According to public data, the (PCE) price of personal consumption expenditure in the United States increased by 2.6% year-on-year in June, higher than expected, and the service industry price index rushed to 69.9%, hitting a new high after October 2022. Former Fed economist Skanda Amarnath put it bluntly: "The downward trend of inflation is no longer clear, and risks are shifting back to the upside." The labor market also revealed weakness, with continued jobless claims increasing by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26, the highest level since November 2021, according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Labor yesterday (7). However, for now, the data shows that companies have not started large-scale layoffs, but the time for the unemployed to return to work is getting longer and longer, indicating that the employment momentum is cooling rapidly. A series of signals paint a picture of weakening growth momentum and increased price stickiness. Policy Conundrums and Investment Orientation In the face of intertwined pressures, the market consensus is tilted towards the Fed may usher in a long-awaited interest rate cut in September, but it also signals the looming fear of a recession in the United States. Overall, the United States in 2025 is in a trial period of "mild stagnant inflation". Tariff policies have ignited price pressures while undermining growth and employment. The key in the coming quarters will be whether prices can fall, whether companies can adapt to the new cost structure, and whether policymakers can balance austerity and easing... This test has just begun, and everyone is seated. Related reports Trump semiconductor tax is 100%, what can be earned in the cryptocurrency circle? Trump threw a 100% semiconductor tariff punch, TSMC invested $200 billion to "escape" and opened up 5% Trump predicted an "important statement" in the early morning of 8/7, semiconductor tariffs are coming? 〈US "economic stagflation" Trump is most afraid that the script will come true? High inflation, downward revision of GDP, slowing employment..."This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".